So I’m in several survivor pools this year and wanted to actually do well for once.. For those who don’t know, it’s simple – pick one game each week and who will win that game. If you’re right, you move on. . If you’re wrong, you’re done. Be the last one standing and you get paid
One caveat: you can’t pick the same team twice in a season. So you can do one of two things:
A) just take someone you think who will win each week and hope you’ve got good picks at the end. This is the strategy I have taken in years past to minimum success, or
B) take some time at the beginning to analyze the schedule so you can find the weeks where you can slip in some lower-end teams early to have your powerhouses late.
I don’t know about you, but I like a little strategy and being prepared, so I’ll take choice B. That said, and you can do what you want, but here are some of the things I am considering and thinking about when making picks.
- You aren’t better at picking games than Vegas. By Vegas I mean Sportsbooks in general. These guys are literally putting their own money on the line saying they have their picks right. They’re trying to get an even number of over and under betters and similar for each team. Even can mostly mean by payouts. The theory is if they’ve done their job perfectly, they don’t care what happens in the game because their payouts will be the same regardless of outcome. Because of irrational fan betting this never happens, but it’s the goal. So when they list someone as a moneyline favorite, that is worth listening to. Now, they aren’t perfect at all, and consider that some. Just saying if I’m making a survivor pool pick, I’m going to make sure whatever my gut is telling me is matched by Vegas thinking they are the favorite.
- Weeks 1 and 2 love upsets. We all think we know how teams are gonna be after pre-season, but the truth is weeks 1 and 2 are generally packed with a greater number of upsets than most other weeks as we REALLY learn what a team is all about once they have their best 53 out there. So while you want to try to save some heavy hitters for later, you might need to use a couple upfront to make sure you make it to later. I’ve tried being fancy in Week 1. It often leads to a very short season.
- Divisional games are scary – avoid them if possible. I don’t care what the two teams are, I don’t care who is the home team. As a more seasoned Dallas Cowboys fan I am reminded of their 1989 season when they went 1-15. Their only win was against the Washington Redskins in Washington. This wasn’t a bad Washington team either. They were only 2 seasons removed from an incredibly dominant Super Bowl win, had already beaten the Cowboys 30-7 in Dallas and were 4-4 going into that game. They finished the season going 6-1 to end 10-6. No one would have picked Dallas to win that game, yet, they did because of the level of familiarity divisional teams have. You have to remember that even “bad” teams have 53 NFL-caliber players. This is why the worst NFL team would absolutely destroy the college National Champions. Never assume a team can’t win, especially in divisional games.
With those 3 tenets in mind, let’s take a preview of my 2023 Survivor plan. Now, mind you, this is very much subject to change, and I would be utterly shocked if it looked this way at the end. That said, this is going to be a continuously edited document to reflect my personal changes.
Week 1 I’m gonna start by doing what seems to be a survivor ritual for me in recent years – picking on the Houston Texans. At -9.5, the Ravens have the largest spread of any team in the league, and I don’t know how often I would trust them later in the season, so they’re a great week 1 pick. If you don’t like that, Minnesota over Tampa Bay at -6.5 also seems solid, but I think I’d rather save Minnesota for later in the year. Pick: Baltimore Ravens.
Mind you, when you get more than a week out, odds on games get a little dicey, but we’re still going to use them as reference.
Week 2 there aren’t a lot of matchups I love. Buffalo and Philly are the two biggest “overdogs”, but we don’t want to burn either of them yet – they’ll be good later. I don’t like the Giants at all this year, but in week 2 against a Kyler-less Cardinals team, they’re -4 on the road and I’ll happily take that. Pick: New York Giants (see below)
Week 3 there are actually quite a few solid picks. Cincinnati -7 over the Rams, Chiefs -9.5 over the Bears, Cowboys -6.5 over the Cardinals, and even a divisional matchup with Jacksonville -7 over the Texans. But in this case, again trying to lean a little on teams that are solid but might be more scary later, I think Atlanta is still very much trying to put it all together and I’m happy to take Detroit at 5 point favorites in this matchup. Pick: Detroit Lions
Week 4 has me concerned as I don’t see a lot of matchups I really like. It’s divisional, but I don’t think I can pass on San Francisco at -10.5 home favorites against Arizona. Edit: Week 11 forced my hand here. Still sticking with divisional, and I hate making this pick, but we’ll take the Eagles at -7 home against the Commanders. Pick: San Francisco 49ers Philadelphia Eagles
Week 5 I have to keep picking on the Cardinals taking Cincinatti as -7.5 on the road. Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 6: With some teams starting to dry up, I’ll happily take the -7 Dolphins against the Panthers, assuming everyone in Miami has been able to stay healthy. Pick: Miami Dolphins.
Week 7: This week is UGLY. I think I’m forced into another divisional matchup here taking Seattle over the much maligned Cardinals again. Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Week 8: I think this is the week Buffalo comes off the board. They’re -10 against Tampa Bay. Dallas is -7 against the Rams as well. Either is fine. I might change my pick based on a later week but for now it’s Buffalo. Pick: Buffalo Bills (see below)
Week 9: The Cardinals give us the gift of the Browns. Not sure I’d trust Cleveland in most matchups, but at home vs Arizona, at -7, I’ll run it. Pick: Cleveland Browns
Week 10: We are officially getting to be slim pickings. I hate divisional, but I have very little faith in the Giants later in the season, and Dallas hasn’t lost to them in quite some time, with that being unlikely to change this year. Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Week 11: If you’re still in at this point, fantastic job. But, get ready to get bent. There isn’t a single game with a team left I want to pick on. This may force me to go back and examine an earlier pick because there is nothing left. The matchup I want is San Francisco at -7.5 against the Bucs, so I have to go edit week 4 now. Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Week 12: We’re running out of options here. From this point forward you can assume I’m trying to make the best of a bad situation. We haven’t rolled out the Chiefs yet, and at -5.5 road favorites to Las Vegas I think we’ll run that one now. Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 13: We finally get a respite here with two reasonable matchups with the Steelers home 6.5 favorites to the Cardinals and the Jets 6.5 home favorites to Atlanta. This has a lot to do with “is Kyler Murray back and playing?” Or I thought I did, then I looked at week 14. Looks like we’re rolling Steel Curtain like it or not. Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 14: Can’t pick on the Cardinals when they’re on bye. Would definitely have taken the Jets in week 13, but I have no choice but to take them now at -8.5 to the Texans. Pick: New York Jets
Week 15: Oh boy. If you’re religious this is when you need to call it in because this will be a ROUGH week. I really wanted to avoid the Packers, but at home in December against the Bucs feels like my best chance. Pick: Green Bay Packers
Week 16: This week is disgusting. How the hell do you still have 2 teams alive in your survivor pool? Hopefully you don’t. But if you do, and you have to pick SOMEONE, wow, it’s probably the Bears 4.5 point home favorites to the Cardinals, but I don’t like it. Pick: Chicago Bears
Week 17: Well, we’ve sat on Minnesota this long, time to finally bust them out at mere 2.5 point home favorites to the Packers. We went from 1 NFC North team picked to all of them picked in 3 weeks. Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Week 18: Hahahahahaha. Wonky week? If you’re still being forced to make picks at this point, damn, anyone still in should probably split because damn it would feel bad to lose now. But, in the all-divisional week when literally anything could happen or starters can get rest, I’ll say eff it and roll out the Saints at -2.5 home over the Falcons. Pick: New Orleans Saints.
With 18 winners picked there are 14 teams that never got used:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Atlanta Falcons
- Carolina Panthers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Washington Commanders
- Denver Broncoes
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Los Angeles Chargers
- New England Patriots
- Tennessee Titans
Okay, I’m perfectly fine with 12 of these teams being on the list, but for the teams we did pick, I’m pretty shocked I never got the Jaguars or Chargers on there. Maybe I was saving them early and never got to them late. This is a full process, and I want you to see it, so we’re gonna go look back now at their schedules and see if there is a good slot for either.
Most of the matchups I might put the Jags in are divisional, and that AFC South tends to be even more volatile than most divisions so even with 2 matchups against the Texans and Colts, I’m going nio where near any of their divisional games. Week 4 vs Atlanta (-4) and Week 16 @ Tampa (-3.5) are the only other 2 slots I’d feel remotely comfortable slotting them in. This is too iffy of a pick to usurp my Week 4 pick for sure. Remember, one loss and you’re done, so going 17-1 in picks doesn’t matter if your 1 was in week 4. I think I still like Chicago in Week 16. So despite being a team I’m pretty sure will win the division, there is nowhere to put them.
For the Chargers, they are only greater than 3 point favorites or dogs in 4 of their 17 matchups this year. One is being a 6 point underdog to Kansas City in Week 8. The other 3 they are favorites. -3.5 at the Titans Week 2, -4.5 home against the Bears week 8, and -3.5 at home against Denver week 14. Start by excluding the divisional one. Week 2 I’m not taking a 3 ½ point favorite. See my point in the Jacksonville summary above about going 17-1. Week 8 is the only one I see. Now, in this case, I actually could see me changing this up. We burnt the Bills there, and I know we can slot them in better elsewhere. So, let’s update Week 8 Pick: Los Angeles Chargers.
Now, we have the Bills we no longer have to “hold back” and can slot them anywhere I want. Week 15 seemed like a good spot, but they play the Cowboys and no, definitely not taking that even if they’re 4 point favorites. But when we run back to week 2, a Giants team I’m pretty sure will be sub-500 this year is there, and we’ve already noted how favored Buffalo is against the Raiders there, so I think that will be our new pick. Week 2 Pick: Buffalo Bills
I feel a lot better with this, feeling a lot more confident I likely won’t get ousted early. Of course, now Baltimore is gonna lose week 1 and this will all be for naught.
Teams we picked against this season:
- Arizona Cardinals (5)
- Houston Texans (2)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2)
- Atlanta Falcons (2)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2)
- Washington Commanders (1)
- Carolina Panthers (1)
- Chicago Bears (1)
- New York Giants (1)
- Green Bay Packers (1)
Of those, the Bears and Packers were the only teams that got picked to win, and that wasn’t until Week 15 so I feel good about that. I would have thought it would have been more consolidated, and really shocked no team got picked against more than twice, sans the Cardinals.
So, the final, real, actual list of teams being picked by week:
Week 1: Texans @ Ravens
Week 2: Raiders @ Bills
Week 3: Falcons @ Lions
Week 4: Commanders @ Eagles
Week 5: Bengals @ Cardinals
Week 6: Panthers @ Dolphins
Week 7: Cardinals @ Seahawks
Week 8: Bears @ Chargers
Week 9: Cardinals @ Browns
Week 10: Giants @ Cowboys
Week 11: Buccaneers @ 49ers
Week 12: Chiefs @ Raiders
Week 13: Cardinals @ Steelers
Week 14: Texans @ Jets, Lions @ Bears
Week 15: Buccaneers @ Packers, Texans @ Titans
Week 16: Cardinals @ Bears, Jaguars @Buccaneers
Week 17: Packers @ Vikings, Rams @ Giants
Week 18: Falcons @ Saints, Buccaneers @ Panthers
And here is is for all you visual people:
Hope you enjoyed, and happy to hear why I’m wrong and what I missed.
Edit #1 (Between Weeks 2 and 3)
So after a start that has me a bit concerned between the loss to Seattle, David Montgomery’s injury, and a somewhat unexpectedly good start for the Falcons, I’m moving Detroit out of week 3. Now this obviously doesn’t happen easily. To move them out, I need someone to move in. While I don’t like blowing out all the good teams early, this week has me a little concerned, especially looking forward a bit. So, what matchup do I feel best about? Dallas over Arizona because, well, I am taking anyone over Arizona, especially since they are exactly who we thought they were after that epic collapse against an otherwise pretty bad Giants team. I may have to watch this game between the cracks in my hands because this could turn into as bloodbath really fast. Luckily I’m a Cowboys fan, so this is all in the good way. The Diggs injury obviously worries me as a whole, but I’m pretty sure we could lose Parsons and Dak and still handle Arizona (knock on wood).
So, Dallas was slotted into Week 10. If we pull them out, we need to put someone else in. Let’s see. Well, if we look at the aforementioned scarier-than-expected Falcons we see they play….Arizona. Well, that’s a super easy swap.
But Atlanta was slotted in Week 14. Who does Arizona play….drat, they’re on bye. Who else might be a trainwreck playing against someone I am allowed to use. Ah, we comes back to the Lions who play Chicago. It’s Divisional so I don’t like it, but it’s also week 14 and if I’m still live when we get there, then I’ll happily deal with that then.
One other situation I’m not doing anything about yet, but I am damn sure monitoring is Week 5 taking the Bengals. Before the season started I would have thought this was a stone cold lock. And I think it still likely is as they are playing…you guessed it, Arizona. But, they have NOT looked good at all weeks 1-2, so I’m just keeping an eye on it. I still think a bad Bengals team is better than the Cardinals, but never get TOO overconfident – there have only been two 0-16 teams for a reason – most teams find a way to win SOMETHING. Now do I think the Cardinals are on their way to a 16 loss season? Yes I do. But the season is also 17 games now. They’ll surprise somewhere.
Now, in the same breath, I am checking the Cardinals schedule to see where some changes might be possible without too much disruption, and I find:
- Week 6 @ LA Rams
- Week 11 @ Houston
- Week 12 vs LA Rams
These matchups concern me. Two are divisional against the Rams, and I’m not sure Houston is a much better team than Arizona. Also, I have the Bears to beat the Cardinals in Week 16, and if I can see the Cardinals breaking their 0-14 season it could be there when they potentially might have Kyler back, if they don’t just shut him down for the whole season, which is highly likely. But anyway, let’s look at who we save by swapping any of these matchups.
- Week 6: Miami
- Week 11: San Francisco
- Week 12: Kansas City
Now, I feel pretty good about unseating any of these teams to use them elsewhere. But looking over things, I am now a little concerned about Week 4 as well. Yes, it’s the Commanders at the Eagles. Yes, it’s in Philadelphia. But, need I remind you that week 9 last year, an 8-0 Eagles team played a 4-5 Commanders team. In Philadelphia. And the Eagles were 8-1 afterwards. Divisional matchups. So if I move them out, who do I want and how safe should I play it? Miami goes to Buffalo and the Chiefs go to the Jets. I don’t actually like either of those matchups. The Niners play….the Cardinals. Okay. But if we unslot the Eagles from there we can’t just swap them with the Niners. Well, we could, but they play at Kansas City Week 11, so, no.
So right now, I’m just gonna chill, do nothing about the Eagles, watch week 3 and see if I feel better or worse about it.
Visual of where we are now:
Edit #2 (After Week 3).
Well, can’t say I had Arizona winning by 12 on my bingo card. C’est la vie . That’s what they’re called upsets. As such, I think a lot of the information I gave is still really good, but obviously I won’t be updating this any further this season. Good luck all!
Edit #3 (After Week 4)
I lied. Just because I got upset doesn’t mean YOU got upset. So, we still have some work to do. I just can’t keep up the pretty graphic since my entry now has the big X.
Week 5 we can’t take the Bengals anymore. The Bengals are playing too poorly and the Cardinals are playing too well (both of those being very relative terms). I still think the Bengals will win this game, but I’d no longer be willing to stake my claim into it. But I think those Lions are gonna be on the move again and I’ll go ahead and take them against the Panthers. This time, I’m gonna get a little less convoluted with it and simply allow myself to keep that week 14 hole for now. I won’t need to fill it anytime soon and this will keep some options open for me right now.
I’m also keeping an eye on Week 6. Not because I don’t trust the Dolphins to dismantle Carolina at home, but because I trust the Dolphins to dismantle most teams right now, especially with the trade for Chase Claypool who I think will be a much better fit there. In Chicago he had to have thought of himself as WR1/2 material because, really, he is. In Miami, though, I don’t think it’s a question he’s solidly no better than WR3, so if he can get comfortable in that role, the team I already thought has the best set of offensive skill players in the league just got even better. Either way, if I can hold Miami as a wild card for somewhere later where I know I need a winner, that would be great. That said, the only matchup I’m looking at is maybe taking the Texans at home over the Saints. The way the Texans look right now, if they keep it up in Week 5, and the Saints keep looking more like the Ain’ts , it would be hard to not make that pick there. As of this writing the line is Saints (-1) which basically now flies in the face of what I said at the beginning, but I think this line will likely move in the Texan’s favor before this game starts.
But, for now, we’re simply moving Detroit out of Week 14, leaving it blank, and inserting them into Week 5. We’ll clean up 14 later.
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